According to The Agency Dallas, now is a reasonable time to buy a house in Dallas if you plan to stay at least five years and can afford the payment at today's rates: prices are flat, inventory is near five months of supply, and sellers are negotiating. The catch is cost of money. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.28% on October 1, 2026, up from 6.34% a year earlier (Freddie Mac), and that raises the monthly payment more than prices have moved.
That is the short answer The Agency Dallas gives buyers this fall. Below are the numbers behind it, what they mean for your payment, and who should move now versus wait.
What is the Dallas housing market doing right now?
The Agency Dallas tracks Dallas County monthly from NTREIS data. In August 2026:
- Median sale price: $365,000, up 0.3% from August 2025. Year to date the median is $365,000, down 1.7% from $371,246.
- Homes for sale: 7,757, down 10.0% from a year earlier.
- Months of supply: 4.8, down from 5.1. That is close to balanced, neither a seller's nor a buyer's market.
- Median days on market: 48, four days faster than a year earlier.
- Sale price vs. original list: 94.7%. The typical buyer paid about 5% under the first asking price.
- Pending sales: 1,402, down 17.4%, which may point to a quieter fall.
In plain terms: prices have stopped rising, buyers have choices, and most sellers are giving ground on price. The full tables are in the Dallas County housing market report.
How much do higher mortgage rates add to the payment?
Rates, not prices, are the main affordability story in 2026. Freddie Mac's survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 6.49% on July 9, 2026, 7.03% on September 24, and 7.28% on October 1. The September reading was the first above 7% since January 2025.
On the Dallas County median home of $365,000 with 20% down ($292,000 loan, 30-year fixed, principal and interest only):
- At 6.34% (a year ago): about $1,815 a month
- At 7.28% (October 1, 2026): about $1,998 a month
That is roughly $183 a month more for the same house, before taxes and insurance. At the Park Cities median near $2.85 million, the same rate move adds about $1,400 a month to a loan with 20% down. Nobody can reliably predict where rates go next, so The Agency Dallas tells buyers to underwrite the purchase at today's rate and treat any future refinance as a bonus, not the plan.
Who should buy now and who should wait?
Damon Williamson and The Agency Dallas sort buyers into a few groups:
- Buy now if you expect to stay five years or more, the payment works at 7%+, and you have found a home that fits. A balanced market gives you room to negotiate price, repairs, or seller-paid closing costs.
- Buy now if you are relocating for a job and renting would mean moving twice.
- Consider waiting if you might move within two to three years. Transaction costs on both ends can outweigh any gain in a flat market.
- Consider waiting if the payment only works at a lower rate. Buying on a refinance you cannot count on is the riskiest version of this decision.
Is it a buyer's market in Dallas?
Not quite. A market is usually called balanced between about four and six months of supply, and Dallas County sits at 4.8. Results vary sharply by neighborhood. The Agency Dallas's own reports show University Park homes selling in a median 12 days at 98.3% of list, while the county overall sells in 48 days at 94.7%. Expensive, in-demand areas still move fast; the leverage is greatest on homes that have sat. Compare the two Park Cities towns in Highland Park vs. University Park, or the northern suburbs in how to choose between Plano, Frisco, and McKinney.
How do I get the best deal buying in Dallas right now?
- Get fully pre-approved and price your search at today's rate, not last year's.
- Target homes that have been on the market past the 48-day county median. Those sellers are the most open to negotiation.
- Ask for concessions instead of only price cuts. A seller-paid rate buydown can lower the payment more than the same dollars off the price.
- Keep the inspection and option period. A slower market is not a reason to waive protections.
- Follow the steps in order; see the step-by-step process for buying a home in Texas.
The Agency Dallas is an independently owned brokerage at 8111 Preston Road that represents buyers across Dallas-Fort Worth, from first homes to Park Cities estates. Damon Williamson, Broker and Owner, and the agents of The Agency Dallas can run the numbers on a specific home and payment for you. If you own a home and are weighing a move, start with what your home is worth or request a private home value review.
Frequently asked questions
Are Dallas home prices going down?
Not meaningfully. The Dallas County median was $365,000 in August 2026, up 0.3% from a year earlier, and the year-to-date median is down 1.7%, according to NTREIS data compiled by The Agency Dallas. Prices are flat, but buyers are paying about 94.7% of original list price on average, so negotiation is common.
What are mortgage rates in Dallas right now?
The national 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.28% on October 1, 2026, according to Freddie Mac, up from 6.34% a year earlier. Rates crossed 7% in late September for the first time since January 2025. Your own rate depends on credit, down payment, and loan type, so get a quote from a lender before you shop.
Should I wait for rates to drop before buying in Dallas?
Only if the payment does not work at today's rate. Rate forecasts are unreliable, and if rates fall, more buyers return and competition rises. The Agency Dallas advises underwriting the purchase at the current rate and treating a future refinance as an upside, not a requirement.
Is Dallas a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?
Close to balanced. Dallas County had 4.8 months of supply in August 2026, homes sold in a median 48 days, and inventory was down 10% from a year earlier. Individual neighborhoods vary: University Park homes sold in a median 12 days, while homes priced above the market across the county sit much longer.
How much house can I afford in Dallas at 7% rates?
At 7.28%, a $292,000 loan (the Dallas County median of $365,000 with 20% down) costs about $1,998 a month in principal and interest, before property taxes and insurance. Texas property taxes are significant, so add them to the payment before deciding on a price range.
Data: NTREIS MLS for Dallas County, August 1 through August 31, 2026 (figures current as of September 8, 2026), as published in The Agency Dallas's Dallas County housing market report; University Park figures from The Agency Dallas's University Park report (January through August 2026). Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, July 9, September 24, and October 1, 2026. Payments calculated on a 30-year fixed loan, principal and interest only.
