Over the past five years, Celina's strongest value growth among major communities came from Mustang Lakes and the one acre lot neighborhoods, each up more than 35 percent per square foot, based on NTREIS closed sales from November 2020 through October 2021 compared with November 2, 2025 through November 2, 2026. Nobody can promise what the next five years will do, but this record shows what has actually held up. The Agency Dallas, an independently owned and operated brokerage serving North Texas, ran these numbers on four Celina home groups in ZIP code 75009.
Which Celina communities have held value best over five years?
We compared median closed price and median price per square foot for single family homes in each community across two 12 month windows, five years apart.
Community | 2020 to 2021 sales | 2020 to 2021 median price per sq ft | 2025 to 2026 sales | 2025 to 2026 median price per sq ft | Change per sq ft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
One acre group* | 29 | $185 | 34 | $256 | +38% |
Mustang Lakes | 157 | $191 | 98 | $260 | +36% |
Light Farms | 247 | $177 | 102 | $219 | +24% |
Cambridge Crossing | 49 | $188 | 67 | $214 | +14% |
*DC Ranch, Preston Hills, Highland Crossing and Wild Wood, with median lots of about one acre.
Median sale prices rose too, though those numbers are more affected by what got built and sold:
- Mustang Lakes: $596,000 to $985,000, with the median house growing from 3,051 to 3,705 square feet.
- One acre group: $576,000 to $866,000.
- Light Farms: $490,000 to $660,000.
- Cambridge Crossing: $494,000 to $608,000.
Why use price per square foot instead of median price?
Median price can rise just because larger homes sold. Mustang Lakes is the clearest example: its median price climbed 65 percent, but the median home also got about 20 percent bigger, so the per square foot gain of 36 percent is the fairer measure. Even that number is not perfectly like for like. Both windows include new builder sales, finishes change, and newer sections may carry higher pricing than older ones. Read these figures as a direction, not a precise return.
What separates the leaders from the rest?
The record suggests a few patterns, though it does not prove any single cause:
- Land scarcity. The one acre neighborhoods are a limited product in a part of Collin County where most new lots are much smaller. Median lots in Light Farms and Cambridge Crossing were 0.17 and 0.14 acres in the recent window.
- Top of market depth. Mustang Lakes reached a high of $2.65 million in the recent window. Light Farms reached $1.675 million and Cambridge Crossing $1.346 million. A wider price ceiling gives sellers more room.
- Builder competition. Communities still selling new homes put resale owners next to a builder with incentives. Our post on selling near new builds in Prosper applies directly to Celina sellers.
- Sales pace. Light Farms and Mustang Lakes both closed far fewer homes in the recent window than five years ago, while Cambridge Crossing closed more. Fewer sales can reflect fewer new homes left to sell, not weaker demand.
What does this year's $750,000 and up market look like?
In the most recent 12 months, ZIP code 75009 recorded 233 single family closings at $750,000 or more. Mustang Lakes accounted for 71 of them and Light Farms for 40, so those two communities made up nearly half of this segment. Within this group, Mustang Lakes had a median of $1,080,000, Light Farms $1,000,000, and Cambridge Crossing $928,000 on 10 sales. Our guide to the most expensive neighborhoods in Prosper and Celina covers more of the map.
What should a Celina seller do with this?
If you own in one of these communities, your first job is knowing which number applies to you. A home in an older section competes differently from one next to an active builder phase. The Agency Dallas helps Celina sellers with a few specific steps:
- Pull closed sales in your section first, then your community, then the competing communities.
- Compare against current builder pricing and incentives, since your buyer is seeing both.
- Price on per square foot and lot, and be ready to explain any premium with specifics.
A free home valuation is the simplest place to start, and our Prosper area page and new home community guide show what buyers are comparing you against.
What should a buyer check before assuming the trend continues?
A five year record is useful, but buyers should check what is specific to the home:
- Tax rate. Celina ISD adopted a total rate of $1.2088 per $100 for 2026 to 2027. The city's published maximum for the year was about $0.5717. Municipal utility district or public improvement district charges can add to that, and they vary by section.
- School district. Parts of Celina fall in Celina ISD and parts in Prosper ISD, so confirm by address.
- Future supply. Ask how many lots remain and what is planned next door.
Our post on buying acreage in Celina explains how these taxes work if you are looking at land instead.
Frequently asked questions
Which Celina community has appreciated the most?
Among the four groups we measured, the one acre neighborhoods and Mustang Lakes led, with median price per square foot up about 38 percent and 36 percent over five years. Light Farms rose about 24 percent, and Cambridge Crossing rose about 14 percent. These figures come from NTREIS closed sales and are not a forecast of future performance.
Will Celina home values keep rising?
No one can say for certain. The past five years show gains across the communities we measured, but future values depend on interest rates, new supply, and job growth. The Agency Dallas, an independently owned and operated brokerage serving North Texas, looks at each section's closed sales and builder pipeline rather than relying on a citywide forecast.
Are acre lots in Celina worth the premium?
In the past five years, they have held value well. The four one acre neighborhoods we measured rose about 38 percent per square foot, the highest of the groups studied. The sample is small, at 34 sales in the recent window. Buyers should also weigh well, septic, and maintenance costs against the larger lot before paying a premium.
Is Mustang Lakes more expensive than Light Farms?
Yes, based on recent closed sales. Mustang Lakes had a median of $985,000 and $260 per square foot in the 12 months through November 2, 2026, compared with $660,000 and $219 in Light Farms. Mustang Lakes homes were also larger at the median, which explains part of the gap in overall price.
How should I compare Celina communities before buying?
Compare price per square foot, lot size, total tax rate including any district charges, school zoning, and remaining new home supply. Then look at closed sales in the specific section, not just the master community. Two homes in the same community can sit in different tax or builder situations, which affects both cost and resale.
Sources: NTREIS Matrix closed single family sales in ZIP 75009, November 1, 2020 to October 31, 2021 and November 2, 2025 to November 2, 2026, pulled November 2, 2026; Celina ISD, adopted tax rate notice, September 1, 2026; City of Celina, Notice About 2026 Tax Rates, and Community Impact, August 2026. Figures are medians and are not an appraisal.
